Published on June 24, 2025
Distractions from The Big Beautiful Betrayal
Does Trump's bombing of Iran that could ignite a world war justify Trump's proving he's not a TACO chicken and/or give him the grounds for a Nobel peace prize (which he's deeply coveted
ever since Obama got one)? Unknown. But Trump has likely succeeded in distracting attention
from the Big Ugly Budget mess. The politics are so complicated that it's hard to keep track.
Here's an overview of where things stand with the Big Beautiful Betrayal, as Senator Merkeley
has dubbed it.
Background: House Republicans passed a budget resolution for FY25 through FY34 that, they
promise, would reduce spending and the budget deficit while promoting economic growth. In
fact, the Bill would give tax breaks the super wealthy and steeply increase spending for the
military and immigrant deportation while drastically cutting the social safety net for average
Americans and enlarging the deficit. To add insult to injury, Republicans tucked into the Bill a
number of policies they hope to sneak through - e.g., prohibit states from regulating AI for 10
years.(3)
Where we stand now: Senate Republicans are engaged in the next step - proposing their own
budget. If it closely resembles the House bill, it will qualify for the budget reconciliation
process, allowing it to pass with a simple majority. Current drafts "double down" on House cuts
to Medicaid. "[The cuts] eclipse the House's, which already represented the largest rollback in
the program's history. This would push greater costs onto states, providers, communities,
taxpayers, and ultimately onto low-income Americans..." There's lots more, and it's alarming;
see the Medicare Rights summary.(1)
The Senate resolution will have to meet the standards of the Byrd Rule, which limits budget
reconciliation bills to provisions that raise or expend revenue. The Parliamentarian, appointed
through a bi-partisan process, determines what qualifies and what doesn't. She's made several
rulings so far (e.g., cutting the provision that would defund Sen. Warren's CFPB).(2) She has
also cut a provision that would drastically reduce SNAP (food stamps) funding by pushing costs
onto states.(4) Squabbles and schisms among Republicans still have to be settled (e.g., where
to cap the SALT federal deduction).
Whatever happens, Republicans will have to scramble to protect the billionaires' tax cut by
finding new victims for whom they can cut funding. But the massive cuts to Medicaid (which
amount to Republicans finally achieving their goal of abolishing Obamacare [5]) will remain, as
will much collateral damage (e.g., capping student loans, which will make medical school
prohibitively expensive for most students and reduce the supply of future doctors), and new
outrages will be added.
One final insult. Republicans have fashioned their bill as a 10-year budget (FYs 25 to 34).
According to Chris Bowers, "the new spending provisions associated with deportations and
building up the military, as well as with Trump's gimmicky campaign promises, expire in 2028.
Further, almost all of the cuts to the social safety net, and even some of the cuts to green
energy investments, do not go into effect until 2029. Basically, all of the perks happen during
Trump's time in office, while all of the pain will be felt by his successor, thus making Trump look
good at the expense of literally everyone else."
But there's hope. The Republican strategy could backfire. Bowers explains: "if Democrats can
retake Congress and the White House in the 2026 and 2028 elections, they will be able to
quickly pass a bill that would block the social safety net cuts and not renew any of the spending
related to Donald Trump's deportations, military build up, and campaign promises. To top it off,
they can also end Trump's tax cuts for wealthiest Americans, thus rendering the bill deficit
neutral." We've got our work cut out for us.(6)
Click for Medicarerights.org article
Click here for Substack AI Article